Conservation biologists are concerned that climate change will cause widespread extinctions because limited capacity for migration could compromise species' ability to adjust to geographic shifts in habitat condition. However, commercial plant nurseries may provide a head start for northward range shifts among some plant species. To investigate this possibility, we compared the natural ranges of 357 native European plant species with their commercial ranges, based on 246 plant nurseries throughout Europe.
In 73% of native species, commercial northern range limits exceeded natural northern range limits, with a mean difference of ~ 1000 km. With migration rates of ~ 0.1–5 km per year required for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next century, we expect nurseries and gardens to provide a substantial head start on such migration for many native plants. While conservation biologists actively debate whether we should intentionally provide “assisted migration”, it is clear that we have already done so for a large number of species.
Agricultural innovations are primarily concerned with a need for increasing production (of food, fodder, secondary products) as well as enhancing quality (of produce, production process, growing conditions). This paper reviews current thinking on how improvements and innovations in agriculture arise, what forms they take and what agents are involved. Innovations typically affect one or more of the following areas: crops, animals, growing conditions, implements and management practices.
While ‘macro-inventions’ (radical new ideas) do occur, many concern ‘micro-inventions’, that is changes or modifications to tools and practices made by skilled practitioners (farmers, craftspeople), rather than by inventors or entrepreneurs. Indeed, agricultural innovations frequently concern not so much the adoption of newly introduced technologies, but the adaptation of existing ones. The term ‘agricultural revolution’ tends to be used when a number of improvements in separate areas of the farming system co-occur as a complex, and, although these may be introduced gradually, once they reach a critical mass their impact on society may be of a magnitude deserving of the term ‘revolution’.
Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species' range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems.
Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced histor- ical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
Climate change will affect the presence and concentration of mycotoxin in various foods. Recently, a concern arised on the presence of Alternaria mycotoxins in tomatoes and derived tomato products. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on their growth and mycotoxin production on tomatoes in function of changing temperatures. Therefore, a climate change model "HadGEM2-ES" was applied and downscaling of coarse gridded data was done towards a tomato field surface. After transforming the daily temperature data towards hourly data, the growth model of the Alternaria mould was applied.
This leads to an assessment of growth rate and actual growth for three time frames being current (1981-2000), near (2031-2050) and far future (2081-2100). The influence of the harvesting period in a growing season, RCP scenarios and time frames was evaluated and two regions, Spain and Portugal were compared with each other. For Spain there were no significant differences for RCP 2.6 and 4.5. For the more extreme RCP scenarios (6.0 and 8.5) the diameter of the mould was significantly lower for the far future compared with the current time frame. This can be explained by the higher temperatures (18.2-38.2. °C) which become too high for fungal growth.
For Poland, there was a significant difference in the different time frames, the diameter of the mould was for the far future. >. near future. >. current time frame. This is due to the predicted higher temperatures in the far future (14.2-28.4. °C) which becomes closer to the optimal temperature for the growth of Alternaria spp. compared with the colder temperatures in the present. According to the results, the situation in Poland in the far future (2081-2100) will became similar as the situation in Spain in the present time frame (1981-2000).
For many leaf-feeding herbivores, synchrony in phenology with their host plant is crucial as development outside a narrow phenological time window has severe fitness consequences. In this review, we link mechanisms, adaptation, and population dynamics within a single conceptual framework, needed for a full understanding of the causes and consequences of this synchrony.
The physiological mechanisms underlying herbivore and plant phenology are affected by environmental cues, such as photoperiod and temperature, although not necessarily in the same way. That these different mechanisms lead to synchrony, even if there is spatial and temporal variation in plant phenology, is a result of the strong natural selection acting on the mechanism underlying herbivore phenology. Synchrony has a major impact on the population densities of leaf-feeding Lepidoptera, and years with a high synchrony may lead to outbreaks. Global climate change leads to a disruption of the synchrony between herbivores and their host plants, which may have major impacts for population viability if natural selection is insufficient to restore synchrony.
This study evaluates climate change potential impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin, in the south of Portugal, by running long-term soil water balance simulations using the ISAREG model and taking into consideration the maximum potential yield. The ISAREG simulations were focused in a set of the most locally representative crops to assess the evolution of net and total water requirements, considering a monthly time step for two 30-year future periods, (2011–2040) and (2041–2070).
Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani equation, and the simulations were performed using, as inputs, a combination of five climate change scenarios built using the Ensemble-Delta technique from CMIP3 climate projections datasets to set different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. Water balance outputs for different climate scenarios were combined with four agricultural scenarios allowing for the estimation of total irrigation requirements. A general increase in crop irrigation requirements was estimated, mainly for those crops as maize, pasture, and orchards that are already big irrigation water consumers. Crops as olive groves and vineyards, well adapted to the Mediterranean conditions, show less sensitivity to climate change.
The combined results of crop irrigation requirements for climate change and agricultural scenarios allow for the expectation of sustainability for the agricultural scenarios A and C, essentially defined by the complete use of the irrigation network and systems currently being constructed with the Alqueva project, but not for the ambitious irrigation area expanding scenario B.
Humanity is heading toward the major challenge of having to increase food production by about 50% by 2050 to cater for an additional three billion inhabitants, in a context of arable land shrinking and degradation, nutrient deficiencies, increased water scarcity, and uncertainty due to predicted climatic changes. Already today, water scarcity is probably the most important challenge, and the consensual prediction of a 2–4°C degree increase in temperature over the next 100 years will add new complexity to drought research and legume crop management. This will be especially true in the semi-arid tropic areas, where the evaporative demand is high and where the increased temperature may further strain plant–water relations. Hence, research on how plants manage water use, in particular, on leaf/root resistance to water flow will be increasingly important.
Temperature increase will variably accelerate the onset of flowering by increasing thermal time accumulation in our varieties, depending on their relative responses to day length, ambient, and vernalizing temperature, while reducing the length ofthe growing period by increasing evapotranspiration. While the timeframe for these changes (>10–20 years) may be well in the realm of plant adaptation within breeding programs, there is a need for today’sbreeding to understand the key mechanisms underlying crop phenology at a genotype level to better balance crop duration with available soil water and maximize light capture. This will then be used to re-fit phenology to new growing seasons under climate change conditions. The low water use efficiency, i.e., the amount of biomass or grain produced per unit of water used, under high vapor pressure deficit, although partly offset by an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, would also require the search of germplasm capable ofmaintaining high water use efficiency under such conditions. Recent research has shown an interdependence ofC and N nutrition in the N performance of legumes, a balance that may be altered under climate change.
Ecophysiological models will be crucial in identifying genotypes adapted to these new growing con- ditions. An increased frequency of heat waves, which already happen today, will require the development of varieties capable of setting and filling seeds at high temperature. Finally, increases in temperature and CO2 will affect the geographical distribution of pests, diseases, and weeds, presenting new challenges to crop management and breeding programs.
Grain legumes contribute significantly to total world food production. Legumes are the primary source of dietary proteins in many developing countries, where protein hunger and malnutrition are widespread. Grain legumes germplasm constitute 15% of the 7.4 M accessions preserved globally. Nearly, 78% of the CGIARs, 0.217 M accessions, have been characterized, compared to 34% of national genebank collections. Interestingly, limited data on grain quality are available as the primary focus has been on morpho-agronomic traits. Clearly, more resources should be targeted on biochemical evaluation to identify nutritionally rich and genetically diverse germplasm.
The formation of core and mini core collections has provided crop breeders with a systematic yet manageable entry point into global germplasm resources. These subsets have been reported for most legumes and have proved useful in identifying new sources of variation. They may however not eliminate the need to evaluate entire collections, particularly for very rare traits. Molecular characterization and association mapping will further aid to insights into the structure of legume diversity and facilitate greater use of collections. The use of high resolution elevational climate models has greatly improved our capacity to characterize plant habitats and species adaptive responses to stresses. Evidence suggests that there has been increased use of wild relatives as well as new resources resulting from mutagenesis to enhance the genetic base of legume cultigens.
Over the past decade, efforts to move towards a low carbon economy have been increasingly coupled with the acknowledgement that we also need to develop climate resilient economies, capable of adapting and responding to changes in climate. To shift society in these directions we need to quantify impacts in relation to these objectives and develop cost-effective interventions. Techniques for quantifying greenhouse gas emissions are relatively well established and enable identification of hotspots where there is emissions reduction potential.However, there are no established techniques to assess and quantify adaptation vulnerability issues and identify hotspots for intervention.
This paper presents work undertaken at a European level with the objective of identifying potential hotspots where ecosystem services may be vulnerable to climate change and thus where intervention may be required under the European Rural Development Programme. A pragmatic and relatively simple approach is presented, based on data that is readily available across Europe. The vulnerability assessments cover: Water (quality: dilution and filtration, regulation: flooding and provision); soils (erosion and organic matter); and biodiversity (forest fires, migration and pollination). The framework and assessments presented are considered fit for purpose (at a basic level) and they are potentially valuable tools for targeting limited resources to achieve desirable outcomes. They also contribute towards providing a better understanding of the climate change challenges we face and support the formulation of solutions to optimally address those challenges There is scope to further improvement and a number of options are discussed and explored within this paper.
Eight years of fire weather data from sixteen representative weather stations within the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta were used to compile reference weather streams for low, moderate, high, very high and extreme Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions. These reference weather streams were adjusted to create daily weather streams for input into Prometheus - the Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model. Similar fire weather analyses were completed using Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) output for northern Alberta (174 grid cells) to generate FWI class datasets ( temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code) for 1 x, 2 x and 3 x CO2 scenarios.
The relative differences between the CRCM scenario outputs were then used to adjust the reference weather streams for northern Alberta. Area burned was calculated for 21 fires, fire weather classes and climate change scenarios. The area burned estimates were weighted based on the historical frequency of area burned by FWI class, and then normalized to derive relative area burned estimates for each climate change scenario. The 2 x and 3 x CO2 scenarios resulted in a relative increase in area burned of 12.9 and 29.4% from the reference 1 x CO2 scenario.