The current paper investigates the medium term economic impact of climate changes on the EU agriculture. The yield change data under climate change scenarios are taken from the BIOMA (Biophysical Models Application) simulation environment. We employ CAPRI modelling framework to identify the EU aggregate economic effects as well as regional impacts. We take into account supply and market price adjustments of the EU agricultural sector as well as technical adaptation of crops to climate change.
Overall results indicate an increase in yields and production level in the EU agricultural sector due to the climate change. In general, there are relatively small effects at the EU aggregate. For example, the value of land use and welfare change by approximately between -2% and 0.2%. However, there is a stronger impact at regional level with some stronger effects prevailing particularly in the Central and Northern EU and smaller impacts are observed in Southern Europe.
Regional impacts of climate change vary by a factor higher up to 10 relative to the aggregate EU impacts. The price adjustments reduce the response of agricultural sector to climate change in particular with respect to production and income changes. The technical adaption of crops to climate change may result in a change production and land use by a factor between 1.4 and 6 relative to no-adaptation situation.
The levels of inaccuracy in projections of global climate model outputs can be reduced by identification of the correlations between the output results of a number of models, which include common assumptions. Some of the invasive pathogen of Fusarium oxysporum f. spp. pose risks to a number of cash crops such as banana, tomato, palm and garlic while some have a symbiotic relation varying from pathogenic to commensal (null effect), up to beneficial effect. Limitation of occurrence records of many single species such as F. oxysporum f. sp. cubense, F. oxysporum f. sp. albedinis, F. oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici and F. oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum necessitated this study to model the future distribution of F. oxysporum f. spp. rather than individual species.
The future distribution of F. oxysporum f. spp. was modeled by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, and the results were correlated to identify areas suitable for F. oxysporum f. spp. growth for North Africa, Middle Eastern and European countries for the years 2050 and 2100. The projections established that a number of countries will become highly conducive to this fungus, while others are projected to produce marginal levels of conduciveness by 2050 and 2100. We also demonstrate that refining CLIMEX outputs with a combination of a number of alternative GCMs results ensures that modeled projections become more robust, rather than producing purely hypothetical findings.
Climate change is gravely affecting forest ecosystems, resulting in large distribution shifts as well as in increasing infection diseases and biological invasions. Accordingly, forest management requires an evaluation of exposure to climate change that should integrate both its abiotic and biotic components. Here we address the implications of climate change in an emerging disease by analysing both the host species (Pinus pinaster, Maritime pine) and the pathogen’s (Fusarium circinatum, pitch canker) environmental suitability i.e. estimating the host’s risk of habitat loss and the disease`s future environmental range. We constrained our study area to the Spanish Iberian Peninsula, where accurate climate and pitch canker occurrence databases were available.
While P. pinaster is widely distributed across the study area, the disease has only been detected in its north-central and north-western edges. We fitted species distribution models for the current distribution of the conifer and the disease. Then, these models were projected into nine Global Climate Models and two different climatic scenarios which totalled to 18 different future climate predictions representative of 2050. Based on the level of agreement among them, we created future suitability maps for the pine and for the disease independently, which were then used to assess exposure of current populations of P. pinaster to abiotic and biotic effects of climate change.
Almost the entire distribution of P. pinaster in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula will be subjected to abiotic exposure likely to be driven by the predicted increase in drought events in the future. Furthermore, we detected a reduction in exposure to pitch canker that will be concentrated along the north-western edge of the study area. Setting up breeding programs is recommended in highly exposed and productive populations, while silvicultural methods and monitoring should be applied in those less productive, but still exposed, populations.
The impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow and sediment export were evaluated for a humid (São Lourenço) and a dry (Guadalupe) Mediterranean catchment, using the SWAT model. SWAT was able to produce viable streamflow and sediment export simulations for both catchments, which provided a baseline for investigating climate and land use changes under the A1B and B1 emission scenarios for 2071-2100. Compared to the baseline scenario (1971-2000), climate change scenarios showed a decrease in annual rainfall for both catchments (humid: - 12%; dry: - 8%), together with strong increases in rainfall during winter.
Land use changes were derived from a socio-economic storyline in which traditional agriculture is replaced by more profitable land uses (i.e. corn and commercial forestry at the humid site; sunflower at the dry site). Climate change projections showed a decrease in streamflow for both catchments, whereas sediment export decreased only for the São Lourenço catchment. Land use changes resulted in an increase in streamflow, but the erosive response differed between catchments.
The combination of climate and land use change scenarios led to a reduction in streamflow for both catchments, suggesting a domain of the climatic response. As for sediments, contrasting results were observed for the humid (A1B: - 29%; B1: - 22%) and dry catchment (A1B: + 222%; B1: + 5%), which is mainly due to differences in the present-day and forecasted vegetation types. The results highlight the importance of climate-induced land-use change impacts, which could be similar to or more severe than the direct impacts of climate change alone.
The likely environmental changes throughout the next century have the potential to strongly alter forest disturbance regimes which may heavily affect forest functions as well as forest management. Forest stands already poorly adapted to current environmental conditions, such as secondary Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests outside their natural range, are expected to be particularly prone to such risks. By means of a simulation study, a secondary Norway spruce forest management unit in Austria was studied under conditions of climatic change with regard to effects of bark beetle disturbance on timber production and carbon sequestration over a time period of 100 years.
The modified patch model PICUS v1.41, including a submodule of bark beetle-induced tree mortality, was employed to assess four alternative management strategies: (a) Norway spruce age-class forestry, (b) Norway spruce continuous cover forestry, (c) conversion to mixed species stands, and (d) no management. Two sets of simulations were investigated, one without the consideration of biotic disturbances, the other including possible bark beetle damages.
Simulations were conducted for a de-trended baseline climate (1961-1990) as well as for two transient climate change scenarios featuring a distinct increase in temperature. The main objectives were to: (i) estimate the effects of bark beetle damage on timber production and carbon (C) sequestration under climate change; (ii) assess the effects of disregarding bark beetle disturbance in the analysis.
Results indicated a strong increase in bark beetle damage under climate change scenarios (up to +219% in terms of timber volume losses) compared to the baseline climate scenario. Furthermore, distinct differences were revealed between the studied management strategies, pointing at considerably lower amounts of salvage in the conversion strategy. In terms of C storage, increased biotic disturbances under climate change reduced C storage in the actively managed strategies (up to -41.0 tC ha-1) over the 100-year simulation period, whereas in the unmanaged control variant some scenarios even resulted in increased C sequestration due to a stand density effect.
Comparing the simulation series with and without bark beetle disturbances the main findings were: (i) forest C storage was higher in all actively managed strategies under climate change, when biotic disturbances were disregarded (up to +31.6 tC ha-1over 100 years); and (ii) in the undisturbed, unmanaged variant C sequestration was lower compared to the simulations with bark beetle disturbance (up to -69.9 tC ha-1over 100 years). The study highlights the importance of including the full range of ecosystem-specific disturbances by isolating the effect of one important agent on timber production and C sequestration.
Rising demand for food, fiber, and biofuels drives expanding irrigation withdrawals from surface water and groundwater. Irrigation efficiency and water savings have become watchwords in response to climate-induced hydrolog ical variability, increasing freshwater demand for other uses including ecosystem water needs, and low economic produc- tivity of irrigation compared to most other uses. We identify three classes of unintended consequences, presented here as paradoxes. Evertighter cycling of water has been shown to increase resource use, an example of the efficiency paradox.
In the absence of effective policy to constrain irrigated- area expansion using “saved water”, efficiency can aggravate scarcity, deteriorate resource quality, and impair river basin resilience through loss of flexibility and redundancy. Water scarcity and salinity effects in the lower reaches of basins (symptomatic of the scale paradox) may partly be offset over the short-term through groundwater pumping or increasing surface water storage capacity.
However, declining ecological flows and increasing salinity have important implications for riparian and estuarine ecosystems and for non-irrigation human uses of water including urban supply and energy generation, examples of the sectoral paradox. This paper briefly considers three regional contexts with broadly similar climatic and water-resource conditions – central Chile, south-western US, and south-central Spain – where irrigation efficiency directly influences basin resilience. The comparison leads to more generic insights on water policy in relation to irrigation efficiency and emerging or overdue needs for environmental protection.
With abundant evidence of recent climate warming, most vegetation studies have concentrated on its direct impacts, such as modifications to seasonal plant and animal life cycle events (phenology). The most common examples are indications of earlier onset of spring plant growth and delayed onset of autumn senescence. However, less attention has been paid to the implications of continued warming for plant species' chilling requirements. Many woody plants that grow in temperate areas require a certain amount of winter chilling to break dormancy and prepare to respond to springtime warming.
Thus, a comprehensive assessment of plant species' responses to warming must also include the potential impacts of insufficient chilling. When collected at continental scale, plant species phenological data can be used to extract information relating to the combined impacts of warming and reduced chilling on plant species physiology. In this brief study, we demonstrate that common lilac first leaf and first bloom phenology (collected from multiple locations in the western United States and matched with air temperature records) can estimate the species' chilling requirement (1748 chilling hours, base 7.2 °C) and highlight the changing impact of warming on the plant's phenological response in light of that requirement.
Specifically, when chilling is above the requirement, lilac first leaf/first bloom dates advance at a rate of − 5.0/− 4.2 days per 100-h reduction in chilling accumulation, while when chilling is below the requirement, they advance at a much reduced rate of − 1.6/− 2.2 days per 100-h reduction. With continental-scale phenology data being collected by the USA National Phenology Network (http://www.usanpn.org), these and more complex ecological questions related to warming and chilling can be addressed for other plant species in future studies.
Carbon in forest biomass has historically been the fulcrum for major changes in forestry and forests. Following T.S. Kuhn, these breaks with the past are seen as paradigm changes. We perceive planned adaptation of forestry and forests under climate change as a new paradigm change, precipitated once more by forest carbon. To be sustainable, forest management and conservation must embrace planned adaptation to and mitigation of mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. The current initiative of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries (REDD) represents, beyond its original mitigation goal, a major facet of planned adaptation of forests and adjoining sectors in developing countries.
The initiative is gaining a powerful momentum for enhancing sustainable forest management in developing countries. REDD may also adapt relations between developing and developed countries in another paradigm change. Worldwide observations of climate change impacts on forests and IPCC forecasts project an image of forests and forestry entering a new era. Dealing with this future by relying on autonomous adaptation is unlikely to suffice.
Climate change will alter site and ecological conditions, increase risk in many forests, create new gaps in knowledge, increase the value of forest carbon and wood energy, and expand the international and human dimensions of forestry. Ending the proverbial seed dormancy of new developments in forestry, change is underway and appears expedient. We conclude that anticipatory planned adaptation of all facets of forestry to climate change imposes mitigation and adaptation as new boundary conditions for sustainable forest management and conservation, and amounts to a paradigm change.
Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities.
Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.
We present for the first time a study on alternative forest management at the European scale to account for climate change impacts. We combine insights into detailed studies at high resolution with the actual status of the forest and a realistic estimate of the current management practices at large scale. Results show that the European forest system is very inert and that it takes a long time to influence the species distribution by replacing species after final felling. By 2070, on average about 36 % of the area expected to have decreased species suitability will have changed species following business as usual management.
Alternative management, consisting of shorter rotations for those species and species planting based on expected trends, will have increased this species transition to 40 %. The simulated forward-looking alternative management leads to some reduction in increment, but does not influ- ence the amount of wood removed from the forest. Northern Europe is projected to show the highest produc- tion increases under climate change and can also adapt faster to the new (proposed) species distribution. Southwest Europe is expected to face the greatest challenge by a combination of a predicted loss of production and a slow rate of management alteration under climate change.