Food systems contribute 19%–29% of global anthropogenic green- house gas (GHG) emissions, releasing 9,800–16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2008. Agricultural production, including indirect emissions associated with land-cover change, con- tributes 80%–86% of total food system emissions, with significant regional variation. The impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be widespread, complex, geographically and tempo- rally variable, and profoundly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Historical statistical studies and integrated assessment models provide evidence that climate change will affect agricultural yields and earnings, food prices, reliability ofdelivery, food quality, and, notably, food safety. Low-income producers and consumers of food will be more vulnerable to climate change owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in adaptive institutions and technologies under increasing climatic risks. Some synergies amongfood security, adaptation, andmitigation are fea- sible. But promising interventions, such as agricultural intensification or reductions in waste, will require careful management to distribute costs and benefits effectively.
Sustainability of water use in agriculture is a line of research that has gained in importance worldwide. The present study reviewed 25 years of international research on sustainable water use in agriculture. A bibliometric analysis was developed to sample 2084 articles. Results indicate exponential growth in the number of articles published per year, with research in this field having acquired a global scale. Environmental Science and Agricultural and Biological Sciences are the main categories. Three journals—Agricultural Water Management, Water Resources Management and Nongye Gongcheng Xuebao Agricultural Engineering—published the most of the articles. China, the U.S., Australia, India and Germany produced the most research.
The three institutions that published the most articles were all Chinese (Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Agricultural University and Northwest A&F University). The most cited authors were Ridoutt, Hoekstra and Zhang. The keywords most frequently used include: water-use, irrigation, water-management, water-supply, and sustainability. A network map shows three clusters that focus on the environmental, agronomic and management aspects. The findings of this study can assist researchers in this field by providing an overview of research on the sustainability of hydric resources.
This research investigates the potential impact of warming on Italian agriculture. Using a detailed dataset of 16,000 farms across Italy, the study examines likely warming impacts in different regions and for different sectors of Italian agriculture. The study finds that farm net revenues are very sensitive to seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation. Livestock and crop farms have different responses to climate as do rain-fed farms and irrigated farms. The overall results suggest mild consequences from marginal changes in climate but increasingly harmful effects from more severe climate scenarios.
Climate change is a major challenge in wine production. Temperatures are increasing worldwide, and most regions are exposed to water deficits more frequently. Higher temperatures trigger advanced phenology. This shifts the ripening phase to warmer periods in the summer, which will affect grape composition, in particular with respect to aroma compounds. Increased water stress reduces yields and modifies fruit composition. The frequency of extreme climatic events (hail, flooding) is likely to increase. Depending on the region and the amount of change, this may have positive or negative implications on wine quality. Adaptation strategies are needed to continue to produce high-quality wines and to preserve their typicity according to their origin in a changing climate. The choice of plant material is a valuable resource to implement these strategies.
Conservation biologists are concerned that climate change will cause widespread extinctions because limited capacity for migration could compromise species' ability to adjust to geographic shifts in habitat condition. However, commercial plant nurseries may provide a head start for northward range shifts among some plant species. To investigate this possibility, we compared the natural ranges of 357 native European plant species with their commercial ranges, based on 246 plant nurseries throughout Europe.
In 73% of native species, commercial northern range limits exceeded natural northern range limits, with a mean difference of ~ 1000 km. With migration rates of ~ 0.1–5 km per year required for geographic ranges to track climate change over the next century, we expect nurseries and gardens to provide a substantial head start on such migration for many native plants. While conservation biologists actively debate whether we should intentionally provide “assisted migration”, it is clear that we have already done so for a large number of species.
Agricultural innovations are primarily concerned with a need for increasing production (of food, fodder, secondary products) as well as enhancing quality (of produce, production process, growing conditions). This paper reviews current thinking on how improvements and innovations in agriculture arise, what forms they take and what agents are involved. Innovations typically affect one or more of the following areas: crops, animals, growing conditions, implements and management practices.
While ‘macro-inventions’ (radical new ideas) do occur, many concern ‘micro-inventions’, that is changes or modifications to tools and practices made by skilled practitioners (farmers, craftspeople), rather than by inventors or entrepreneurs. Indeed, agricultural innovations frequently concern not so much the adoption of newly introduced technologies, but the adaptation of existing ones. The term ‘agricultural revolution’ tends to be used when a number of improvements in separate areas of the farming system co-occur as a complex, and, although these may be introduced gradually, once they reach a critical mass their impact on society may be of a magnitude deserving of the term ‘revolution’.
Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species' range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems.
Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced histor- ical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
Climate change will affect the presence and concentration of mycotoxin in various foods. Recently, a concern arised on the presence of Alternaria mycotoxins in tomatoes and derived tomato products. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of climate change on their growth and mycotoxin production on tomatoes in function of changing temperatures. Therefore, a climate change model "HadGEM2-ES" was applied and downscaling of coarse gridded data was done towards a tomato field surface. After transforming the daily temperature data towards hourly data, the growth model of the Alternaria mould was applied.
This leads to an assessment of growth rate and actual growth for three time frames being current (1981-2000), near (2031-2050) and far future (2081-2100). The influence of the harvesting period in a growing season, RCP scenarios and time frames was evaluated and two regions, Spain and Portugal were compared with each other. For Spain there were no significant differences for RCP 2.6 and 4.5. For the more extreme RCP scenarios (6.0 and 8.5) the diameter of the mould was significantly lower for the far future compared with the current time frame. This can be explained by the higher temperatures (18.2-38.2. °C) which become too high for fungal growth.
For Poland, there was a significant difference in the different time frames, the diameter of the mould was for the far future. >. near future. >. current time frame. This is due to the predicted higher temperatures in the far future (14.2-28.4. °C) which becomes closer to the optimal temperature for the growth of Alternaria spp. compared with the colder temperatures in the present. According to the results, the situation in Poland in the far future (2081-2100) will became similar as the situation in Spain in the present time frame (1981-2000).
For many leaf-feeding herbivores, synchrony in phenology with their host plant is crucial as development outside a narrow phenological time window has severe fitness consequences. In this review, we link mechanisms, adaptation, and population dynamics within a single conceptual framework, needed for a full understanding of the causes and consequences of this synchrony.
The physiological mechanisms underlying herbivore and plant phenology are affected by environmental cues, such as photoperiod and temperature, although not necessarily in the same way. That these different mechanisms lead to synchrony, even if there is spatial and temporal variation in plant phenology, is a result of the strong natural selection acting on the mechanism underlying herbivore phenology. Synchrony has a major impact on the population densities of leaf-feeding Lepidoptera, and years with a high synchrony may lead to outbreaks. Global climate change leads to a disruption of the synchrony between herbivores and their host plants, which may have major impacts for population viability if natural selection is insufficient to restore synchrony.
This study evaluates climate change potential impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin, in the south of Portugal, by running long-term soil water balance simulations using the ISAREG model and taking into consideration the maximum potential yield. The ISAREG simulations were focused in a set of the most locally representative crops to assess the evolution of net and total water requirements, considering a monthly time step for two 30-year future periods, (2011–2040) and (2041–2070).
Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani equation, and the simulations were performed using, as inputs, a combination of five climate change scenarios built using the Ensemble-Delta technique from CMIP3 climate projections datasets to set different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. Water balance outputs for different climate scenarios were combined with four agricultural scenarios allowing for the estimation of total irrigation requirements. A general increase in crop irrigation requirements was estimated, mainly for those crops as maize, pasture, and orchards that are already big irrigation water consumers. Crops as olive groves and vineyards, well adapted to the Mediterranean conditions, show less sensitivity to climate change.
The combined results of crop irrigation requirements for climate change and agricultural scenarios allow for the expectation of sustainability for the agricultural scenarios A and C, essentially defined by the complete use of the irrigation network and systems currently being constructed with the Alqueva project, but not for the ambitious irrigation area expanding scenario B.